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Orb charged to the front of the field in the final seconds of the 139th Kentucky Derby on Saturday, winning the Run for the Roses in an atmosphere that was anything but idyllic. The rainy Saturday in Lousiville, Kentucky, challenged this year’s batch of talented young Thoroughbred racehorses with a sloppy track and heavy, unsure footing. As it so often can, weather played its part in crowning the 2013 Derby champion.

In 2011, Kerry Thomas, founder of the Thomas Herding Technique and author of HORSE PROFILING: THE SECRET TO MOTIVATING EQUINE ATHLETES with Calvin Carter, named Animal Kingdom the strongest contender in the Kentucky Derby according to Kerry’s method of Patterns of Motion Analysis. In 2012, Kerry chose I’ll Have Another as his pick from another talented field. And in both years, his analysis proved true.

Once again, in the days running up to the 2013 Kentucky Derby, Kerry studied video and results of the horses named to break from the gate on the afternoon of May 4, analyzed what he calls their “Emotional Conformation,” and noted his favorites online at Brisnet.com. Kerry explains his ideas about the importance of Emotional Conformation in the equine athlete in his book HORSE PROFILING (CLICK HERE for more information).

If you didn’t have the good luck to read Kerry’s Derby profiles before Saturday’s race, here’s an excerpt from his complete field analysis, which was available for download from Brisnet.com—check out what he had to say about the tough-it-out winner Orb, who fought through the muck to cross the finish line first, despite inexperience in bad conditions:

Thomas Herding Technique Patterns of Motion Analysis/Orb

As much as humans can feel a horse’s presence, the best way to judge a horse’s true power is to let the horses tell you. In other words, look for reactions in nearby horses.

In Orb’s maiden win last November, he defeated fellow Derby starter Revolutionary, a high-level horse in his own right. On the far turn, Revolutionary was on the rail, while Orb was out 4 or 5-wide. There was a clear recognition by Revolutionary that there was a beast-like presence on the outside that he wanted no part of (at least not at that point in his career).

Orb wasn’t showing any demonstrations of body language to influence Revolutionary or the other competitors. He was projecting his presence. That is how the highest level horses choose to communicate—with intent—not with physical bullying or any (misconstrued) classic “alpha” behavior. The fact Revolutionary could feel Orb from that distance away was significant. Orb won the race easily, and not only has he not been beaten since, he continued to grow with each race.

Orb breaks from the gate in group dynamic mode, in complete control. He uses his sense of feel very well. He knows what is going on around him, and he can mentally multi-task without burning much energy. This is an important skill to have. A horse with more singular focus ability—for example, an eye-dependent horse that must look at a stimulus to understand it—can quickly go on sensory overload and burn out emotionally in the Kentucky Derby.

Orb is a very methodical horse and can carry his energy a long way. He has a classic distance mind. In his NW1 allowance victory on January 26, Orb was in a tight spot early, and his jockey pulled him back. Orb handled it with absolutely no panic or unnecessary energy burn. It requires a mental shift to be pulled back and then re-engage, and Orb did it so smoothly.

Orb doesn’t waste any of his individual dynamic energy (the energy horses use in one-on-one battles). He turns it on when he has to pass a horse or assert dominance, but often he barely engages his power. This is not unusual. In nature, high-level horses don’t waste energy. They don’t do anything unless they have to. Orb’s allowance NW1 win was not nearly as close as the one-length physical margin indicated. From a herd dynamic standpoint, that was a 10-length win.

Again, looking at how the other horses react to Orb tells us so much. The lead horse Mountain Eagle was practically running sideways and lost all his momentum because of Orb’s powerful presence from behind. He couldn’t re-settle until Orb went by and released him. Late in the race Orb took over frontrunner Duke of the City’s space and quickly let go. Duke of the City immediately fell into adjunct mode and looked to run on Orb’s flank. He never would have passed him.

In the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), Orb showed the ability to advance through a field, making multiple moves (we call that stairclimbing). That skill will come in handy in the Derby. Orb showed a huge level of grit in the Florida Derby (G1). He was challenged and he responded by exerting himself with more authority than ever before. He was pushing Itsmyluckyday from behind like a snowplow. And Itsmyluckyday is no slouch. Then Orb slammed the door hard and kept going.

Orb always runs his own race. He doesn’t react to the other horses in his environment. They react to him. In all of his recent races, Orb was still operating very efficiently at the wire. That suggests from a mental/emotional standpoint, he can go further. Orb is extremely versatile. He shows no sticking points or mental weaknesses. He operates strongly in traffic or in open space. He never shows a tendency to mimic the rhythm of any other horse (weaker horses sometimes do this for comfort). Orb is above them.

Orb was challenged in different ways in each race, and he imposed his will on the other horses every time. Orb has grown every race at age three, which is pretty scary. He’s continuing to expand on his confidence and control. Orb is in the top 1% of all horses from the standpoint of emotional conformation and herd dynamics. He is our top rated horse in this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Horse-Profiling-250You can find out more about Kerry Thomas’ methods and how they can be used in breeding and training horses that perform optimally more consistently in the book HORSE PROFILING, available at the TSB online bookstore.

CLICK HERE TO ORDER NOW

Read more about Kerry’s Patterns of Motion Analysis in our earlier blog post HERE.